Uncertainty and bioeconomics of near-natural silviculture

Biologically realistic modelling of silvicultural management options combined with improved economic optimisation (Silvicultural Economics) may result in new and sometimes surprising arguments in favour or against current management practices, such as age-class silviculture or near-natural forestry. However, thus far the integration of uncertainty into the modelling process is still insufficient. Based on achievements of the first application (KN 586/7-1), we propose to extend the newly developed bioeconomic modelling approach using a combination of growth models with new models on event-caused tree mortality, while incorporating economic optimisation. In this approach economic optimisation controls silvicultural operations and strategies (first part). Since the new models on event-caused tree mortality still consider only historical events, we further propose integrating recently emerged knowledge from environmentally driven species distribution models to cover the impact of a changing environment on damage risks (second part). The goal of this second part is to reduce the epistemic uncertainty resulting from our incomplete knowledge about future risks.