View into the Future (BLIZ). Interactions between society, land use, ecosystem services and biodiversity in Bavaria until 2100

How do optimal land use strategies for Bavaria look like under climate change con-ditions? BLIZ is developing possible scenarios for these questions. (Foto: Knoke/Rammig)

How will ecosystem services and biodiversity develop in Bavaria? The interdisciplinary joint project BLIZ takes a look into the future and designs new scenarios for a sustainable management of ecosystems in Bavaria. The aim of the group of six subprojects at four universities is to process concrete instructions and estimate possible uncertainties.

Subproject 4: Impact of climate change on land use and multifunctionality (Prof. Dr. Thomas Knoke and Prof. Dr Johannes Sauer, TUM)

The land use change in Bavaria will be analyzed retrospective as well as predictive. Recent changes in the Bavarian landscape will be investigated by means of remote sensing methods. Based on the predictions of the climate-sensitive ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS (subproject 1), decisions of farmers and foresters will be modeled. The results include especially economic motivated as well as multifunctional developments (in consideration of ecosystem services) of future land use options (agroforestry, plantations for fuel wood).